Population and Public Policy of China

In the late 1990s China contained over 1.2 billion people, and was growing at a rate of a about one percent annually; adding 13-14 million persons every year to the popula­tion. Historical records indicate that, as early as 800 B.C., China already had a population of nearly 14 million, and by the turn of the Christian era, when the first registration of population was taken, it contained 60 million inhabitants.

The early official census presumably was im­precise as this was recorded primarily for the levy of poll taxes, and evasion of re­porting was probably quite large. By 971 by all estimates, China had over 143 mil­lion, and by 1851 it reached 432 million. After 1949 under the Communist regime, sanitation, medical care, and public hy­giene considerably improved, and death rate declined much faster than birth rates, resulting in an enormous piling up of peo­ple. By the early 1980s population had reached one billion mark.

Although offi­cial statistics should be used with caution because of the incomplete coverage, it can be safely maintained that over 20 percent of the human race now lives within the borders of China. Both official and private estimates indicate that China has, for long, probably for millennia, been the world’s most populous country.

China’s enormous population is not spread evenly over its vast surface. With a population density now approaching 350 persons per sq. mile (135 per sq. km) it is not, on the whole, a very densely popu­lated country. Several smaller industrial nations and some large ones such as India have much denser concentrations of peo­ple and a much higher overall population density. Large parts of the country are thinly populated.

Due to a number of complex conditions, the population is quite unevenly distributed. Population density varies strikingly, with the greatest contrast occurring between the eastern half of the country and the lands of the west and the northwest.

About 90 percent of its population is concentrated east of an imaginary line that follows the eastern edge of the Great Hinggan mountains south to the Great Wall to the vicinity of Lanzhou, then extended southward along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau Ex­ceptionally high population densities are found in four major areas where the natu­ral environment offers most suitable circumstances for the development of in­tensive agriculture:

(a) The middle and lower Chang Jiang River Basin and delta;

(b) The lower Huanghe Basin;

(c) The Xi River delta, and

(d) The Sichuan Basin.

In addition to the relatively abundant precipi­tation and level topography these areas contain fertile, alluvial soils on which in­tensive agriculture is centered. In contrast, the rugged, remote, and drier areas of the vast western frontier lands of Xizang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are sparsely populated or in most part virtually uninhabited. In the 1950s government became increasingly aware of the importance of the frontier re­gions and embarked on a drive for settling the former military personnel and the young intellectuals in those areas.

Follow­ing the construction of railroads and highways linking these wastelands with the well-settled eastern sections of the country, the population has been growing rapidly in these areas. Settlement in these lands has also led to the exploitation of considerable mineral (particularly oil) and other resources that lay locked in these backward regions. Prior to the estab­lishment of the Communist regime, the occupation of Manchuria had already de­veloped into the principal industrial region of China. It was left to the Communist ad­ministration to Sinicize the “wild” west and develop the regions economically.

China’s population growing at the cur­rent rate of increase will probably reach 1.5 billion by the year 2017, poses enor­mous responsibility on the state. To feed such a huge population is, of course, the basic need, but for the population that has begun on the course of modernization and where the consumption levels have been steadily rising, the demand for much larger reserves of food supply will continue to grow.

During the 1990s China became an important importer of food grains in the world market. Although in 1995 the har­vest of 465 tons of grain was the largest in history, and China became a food grain ex­porter; the food grain situation still remains unpromising in the long run. In normal years China imports the staple ce­real wheat, maize, and rice roughly 10-11 million tons annually, and spends nearly 5 percent of its import expenditure on the food items. It is quite unlikely that it will be able to become self-sufficient in its food grain requirements for its expand­ing population in the long haul.

Initially, the Communist regime offi­cially refused to recognize the population problem. But faced with the problem of raising adequate food supply, the authori­ties sponsored a drive for birth control in 1955. Beginning in 1962, the use of contra­ceptives and advocacy of late marriages became an important part of the official planning program. The outbreak of the Cultural Revolution during the early 1960s disrupted the family planning efforts. In 1970, however, a much stricter program was initiated.

The administration made late marriage and family limitation obliga­tory. Strict rules and a set of punishments for those who did not follow those were forcibly imposed on the public. In 1979 a policy aimed at one child per family was enforced.

The family planning program during the 1980s and 1990s have been, by and large, quite successful, and the state efforts have been much more effective. China’s population growth rate, currently at less than 1 percent a year, down from twice this figure during the 1950s and 1960s, is now unusually low for a developing coun­try, although the enormous size of its population, still results in a large annual net population growth.