Term Paper on Global Warming and Climate Change | Geography

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Global Warming and Climate Change

Term Paper Contents:

1. Term Paper on the Introduction to Global Warming and Climate Change
2. Term Paper on the Role of Global Warming in Climate Change
3. Term Paper on the Effects of Global Warming and Climate Change
4. Term Paper on the Responses to Global Warming on Climate Change
5. Term Paper on the Skepticism on Global Warming and Climate Change

Term Paper # 1. Introduction to Global Warming and Climate Change:

Global warming is an increase over time of the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. It is generally used to describe the temperature rise over the past century or so, and the effects of humans on the temperature.

The more neutral term climate change is usually used to describe previous natural variations. The term may be used to describe theories explaining such an increase or the crisis that many advocates say will arise if no one does anything to prevent such an increase from occurring.

Since 1990, the prospect that the earth’s atmosphere might heat up too much — because of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” — has been a hotly debated topic.

Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18°C (1.33 ± 0.32°F) between the start and the end of the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increases since the middle of the 20th century was very likely caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanic eruptions had a small cooling effect after 1950. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialised countries.

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4°C (2.0 to 11.5°F) during the 21st century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies focus on the period leading up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice.

Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations is uncertain.

Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, its causes and what actions to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geo-engineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth’s surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03°C per decade, versus 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade).

The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002°C of warming per decade since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22°C (0.22 and 0.4°F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

Estimates by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.

Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998. Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nino in the past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25°C per decade against 0.13°C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback.

Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5°C (0.9°F) would still occur.

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Term Paper # 2. Role of Global Warming in Climate Change:

Strengthening of the greenhouse effect through human activities is known as the enhanced (or anthropogenic) greenhouse effect. This increase in radiative forcing from human activity is attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

CO₂ is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production and tropical deforestation. Measurements of CO₂ from the Mauna Loa observatory show that concentrations have increased from about 313 ppm in 1960 to about 389 ppm in 2010. The current observed amount of CO₂ exceeds the geological record maxima (∼300 ppm) from ice core data. The effect of combustion-produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special case of the greenhouse effect first described in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect.

Because it is a greenhouse gas, elevated CO₂ levels contribute to additional absorption and emission of thermal infrared in the atmosphere, which produce net warming. According to the latest Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”.

Over the past 800,000 years, ice core data shows unambiguously that carbon dioxide has varied from values as low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of 270ppm. Paleoclimatologists consider variations in carbon dioxide to be a fundamental factor in controlling climate variations over this time scale.

Attributed and Expected Effects:

Global warming may be detected in natural, ecological or social systems as a change having statistical significance. Attribution of these changes e.g., to natural or human activities, is the next step following detection.

i. Natural Systems:

Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of these changes, e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have been described on temperature changes. Rising sea levels and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with warming. Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20^th century is, with high probability, attributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Even with current policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are still expected to continue to grow over the coming decades. Over the course of the 21^st century, increases in emissions at or above their current rate would very likely induce changes in the climate system larger than those observed in the 20^th century.

In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the end of the 21^st century (the year 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise. Over the course of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in sea level rise of 4-6 m or more.

Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease. The frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation will very likely increase.

ii. Ecological Systems:

In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and pole-ward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, has been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO₂ levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.

iii. Social Systems:

There is some evidence of regional climate change affecting systems related to human activities, including agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect some sectors and systems related to human activities.

These include:

i. Water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes, the dry tropics, and areas that depend on snow and ice melt

ii. Agriculture in low latitudes

iii. Low-lying coastal systems

iv. Human health in populations with limited capacity to adapt to climate change

It is expected that some regions will be particularly affected by climate change, including the Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian and African mega-deltas. Some people, such as the poor, young children, and the elderly, are particularly at risk, even in high-income areas.

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Term Paper # 3. Effects of Global Warming and Climate Change:

The effects of global warming and climate change. The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.

According to IPCC (2007a: 10), “[most] of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in [human greenhouse gas] concentrations”.

It is predicted that future climate changes will include further global warming (i.e., an upward trend in global mean temperature), sea level rise, and a probable increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to implement policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.

Effects on Weather:

Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation but the effects on storms are less clear. Extra-tropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region warms more than the rest of the hemisphere.

Extreme Events:

Fire:

Fire is a major agent for conversion of biomass and soil organic matter to CO₂. There is a large potential for future alteration in the terrestrial carbon balance through altered fire regimes.

With high confidence, Schneider et al. (2007:789) predicted that:

i. An increase in global mean temperature of about 0 to 2°C by 2100 relative to the 1990-2000 periods would result in increased fire frequency and intensity in many areas.

ii. An increase in the region of 2°C or above would lead to increased frequency and intensity of fires.

Weather:

IPCC (2007a:8) predicted that in the future, over most land areas, the frequency of warm spells or heat waves would very likely increase.

Other likely changes are listed below:

i. Increased areas will be affected by drought

ii. There will be increased intense tropical cyclone activity

iii. There will be increased incidences of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)

Storm strength leading to extreme weather is increasing, such as the power dissipation index of hurricane intensity. Kerry Emanuel writes that hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with temperature, reflecting global warming. However, a further study by Emanuel using current model output concluded that the increase in power dissipation in recent decades cannot be completely attributed to global warming.

Hurricane modeling has produced similar results, finding that hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO₂ conditions, are more intense, however, hurricane frequency will be reduced. Worldwide, the proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 or 5 – with wind speeds above 56 metres per second – has risen from 20% in the 1970s to 35% in the 1990s. Precipitation hitting the US from hurricanes has increased by 7% over the twentieth century.

The extent to which this is due to global warming as opposed to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is unclear. Some studies have found that the increase in sea surface temperature may be offset by an increase in wind shear, leading to little or no change in hurricane activity. Hoyos et al. (2006) have linked the increasing trend in number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970–2004 directly to the trend in sea surface temperatures.

Increases in catastrophes resulting from extreme weather are mainly caused by increasing population densities, and anticipated future increases are similarly dominated by societal change rather than climate change. The World Meteorological Organization explains that “though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.” They also clarified that “no individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.”

Thomas Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya of NOAA stated in 2004 that warming induced by greenhouse gas may lead to increasing occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms. In 2008, Knutson et al. found that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies could reduce under future greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Vecchi and Soden find that wind shear, the increase of which acts to inhibit tropical cyclones, also changes in model-projections of global warming.

There are projected increases of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and East Pacific associated with the deceleration of the Walker circulation, as well as decreases of wind shear in the western and central Pacific. The study does not make claims about the net effect on Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes of the warming and moistening atmospheres, and the model-projected increases in Atlantic wind shear.

A substantially higher risk of extreme weather does not necessarily mean a noticeably greater risk of slightly-above-average weather. However, the evidence is clear that severe weather and moderate rainfall are also increasing. Increases in temperature are expected to produce more intense convection over land and a higher frequency of the most severe storms.

Over the course of the 20th century, evaporation rates have reduced worldwide; this is thought by many to be explained by global dimming. As the climate grows warmer and the causes of global dimming are reduced, evaporation will increase due to warmer oceans. Because the world is a closed system this will cause heavier rainfall, with more erosion. This erosion, in turn, can in vulnerable tropical areas (especially in Africa) lead to desertification. On the other hand, in other areas increased rainfall lead to growth of forests in dry desert areas.

Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses.

The IPCC Third Annual Report says:

“…global average water vapour concentration and precipitation are projected to increase during the 21st century. By the second half of the 21st century, it is likely that precipitation will have increased over northern mid- to high latitudes and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases over land areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is projected.”

As the World Meteorological Organization explains, “recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.” Pielke et al. (2008) normalized mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to 2005 values and found no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage.

The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The decade 1996–2005 has the second most damage among the past 11 decades, with only the decade 1926–1935 surpassing its costs. The most damaging single storm is the 1926 Miami hurricane, with $157 billion of normalized damage.

The American Insurance Journal predicted that “catastrophe losses should be expected to double roughly every 10 years because of increases in construction costs, increases in the number of structures and changes in their characteristics.” The Association of British Insurers has stated limiting carbon emissions would avoid 80% of the projected additional annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s.

The cost is also increasing partly because of building in exposed areas such as coasts and floodplains The ABI claims that reduction of the vulnerability to some inevitable effects of climate change, for example through more resilient buildings and improved flood defences, could also result in considerable cost- savings in the long term.

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Term Paper # 4. Responses to Global Warming on Climate Change:

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led some nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global warming, adaptation to the changing global environment, and geo-engineering to reverse global warming.

Mitigation:

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may be sequestered from fossil fuel power plants, or removed during processing in hydrogen production. When used on plants, it is known as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.

The IPCC’s Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming.

They find there are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 per cent increase and three per cent decrease in global gross domestic product.

Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. The world’s primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

As of February 2010, only the United States, historically the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty. The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one. The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference met in Copenhagen in December 2009 to agree on a framework for climate change mitigation. No binding agreement was made.

There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme.

Adaptation:

A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming, including – water conservation, water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices including diversification, construction of flood defenses, changes to medical care, and interventions to protect threatened species. The capacity and potential for human systems to adapt is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations.

The economic costs of adaptation are potentially large, but also largely unknown. Across the literature, there is wide agreement that adaptation will be more difficult for larger magnitudes and higher rates of climate change.

Geo-Engineering:

Geo-engineering is the concept of planetary engineering applied to Earth – i.e. the deliberate modification of Earth’s natural environment on a large scale to suit human needs. An example is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture. Solar radiation management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulphur aerosols or cool roof techniques. No geo-engineering projects of significant scale have been implemented, and detailed study has largely been the work of small numbers of scientists; but various significant institutions such as the Royal

Society and IMechE have recently suggested that further study is warranted. Their various externalities and other costs are seen as major issues, and the idea or concern that one country could act unilaterally has also been raised.

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Term Paper # 5. Skepticism on Global Warming and Climate Change:

Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the projected effects of global warming, although their emissions have been small compared to those of the developed world. The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions has been used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a previous Australian Government. (Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.)

Another point of contention is the degree to which emerging economies such as India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions. The U.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China should do the same since China’s gross national CO₂ emissions now exceed those of the U.S. China has contended that it is less obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and per capita emissions are less that of the U.S. India, also exempt, has made similar contentions.

In 2007-2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world’s population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.

In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University finds that “results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic”; where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates whether climate change is happening.

Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs that such changes would entail. Using economic incentives, alternative and renewable energy have been promoted to reduce emissions while building infrastructure. Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.

Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions. Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or called for policies to reduce global warming. Many studies link population growth with emissions and the effect of climate change.

Some global warming skeptics in the science or political communities dispute all or some of the global warming scientific consensus, questioning whether global warming is actually occurring, whether human activity has contributed significantly to the warming, and the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming.